Time: 11AM-12PM, Friday, January 30, 2026

Venue: WDR 1005

Speaker: Xianling Long, Assistant Professor of the National School of Development at Peking University

Speaker’s bio: Xianling Long is an Assistant Professor of the National School of Development at Peking University, a Peking University Boya Young Fellow, and a recipient of the National Overseas High-level Youth Talent Program. She received her Ph.D. from Stanford University. Her work has been accepted by journals such as American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. One of her collaborative papers was awarded the Journal of Public Economics Best Paper Award for 2018-2020.

Abstract: Despite the growing importance of carbon offset markets, their effectiveness remains controversial. Using data from all Verified Carbon Standard forestry projects in China between 2001 and 2023, we apply multiple causal inference methods to assess their real environmental impact. We find limited evidence of additional tree planting or forest management in most projects. However, outcomes vary substantially with opportunity costs: forests facing higher land or labor opportunity costs perform worse. Combining planting and opportunity cost data, we further estimate the potential net benefits for forest-based carbon offset projects across countries. Our findings highlight the need for stricter evaluation of additionality that explicitly accounts for opportunity costs to ensure the credibility and environmental integrity of carbon offset markets.